NewYork State Unemployment – Graphs , Analysis , Positions Today , Information

 

The U.S. unemployment rate was down 0.4 percentage points in January, to 9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

But non-farm employment across the nation rose by only 36,000 from December levels, led by manufacturing and retail. Construction and transportation jobs declined.

Non-farm employment has risen by 1 million since a low point in February 2010, BLS Commissioner Keith Hall told a congressional panel early Friday.

Average hourly private-sector wages rose by 8 cents in January, to $22.86, BLS said. Over the past year, wages are up 1.9 percent, outpacing the inflation rate of 1.4 percent.

Graph:

 

New York voters, by a 3-to-1 margin, want Gov. Andrew Cuomo to freeze pay for state workers, according to a new poll out Wednesday.

The poll, by Quinnipiac University, found that 77 percent of voters call the state’s budget problems “very serious”—but they also rejected many ways to help erase the state’s $11 billion deficit.

One area of common ground: A potential wage freeze for the 200,000 or more state workers. Cuomo has said he wants to freeze the pay of state workers for a year, to help cut down on costs.

The poll found 75 percent of voters support a wage freeze to help balance the budget. Twenty percent did not support the idea; 5 percent did not know or had no opinion.

The results were almost as strong in households with at least one union member. In those cases, 73 percent of voters supported the wage freeze, while 24 percent did not.

Otherwise, voters split on a range of other options to tackling the state’s fiscal issues.

“The same voters who agree the state’s in horrendous fiscal shape reject many of the standard remedies,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“Layoffs? Voters are divided. Furloughs? A little more support. School aid? Leave it alone. Medicaid? Don’t cut it,” Carroll said, summing up the poll results.

The poll was conducted via calls to land lines and cell phones from Jan. 18-24. About 1,440 people were surveyed; the poll has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points.

 

Today’s Position:

 

State budget officials forecast that New York’s economy will rebound at a “moderate pace” this year, with private-sector jobs increasing by 1.2 percent.

Still, statewide unemployment will remain stuck at 8 percent throughout the year, according to analysis contained within Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s proposed budget.

The state recession lasted 16 months, ending in December 2009, according to budget analysts. The state lost 353,000 private-sector jobs in that time—or 23,000 more jobs than the previous recession, which lasted twice as long.

New York lost more private-sector jobs per month, on average, than at least the past six recessions.

The budget office expects the private-sector to add close to 80,000 jobs this year, with the largest percent increases coming in health care, education and the leisure/hospitality sector. Utilities, manufacturers and financial firms are expected to lead the way in job cuts.

Overall, it’s a projected increase of 1.2 percent, or 0.6 percent below the expected pace nationwide.

There’s good news when it comes to wages, and income from business partnerships and “S” corporations.

New Yorkers suffered a 6.1 percent drop in wages in 2009—the largest one-year decline on record, a drop of $30.1 billion.

Budget officials estimate wages grew by 4 percent last year, and they’re projected to grow again this year by 3.2.

Adjusted gross income for New Yorkers dropped by $135 billion in 2008 and 2009, a decline of close to 20 percent. Budget analysts estimated income grew by 5.1 percent last year and will expand again by 4.5 percent in 2011.

Still, it’s not expected to surpass pre-recession levels until at least 2013, if not later.

“State income growth is likely to remain at historically low rates for quite some time,” budget analysts said.

Income from business partnerships and “S” corporations fell 11 percent in 2009—the largest drop on record. Income was estimated to have increased 6.2 percent last year and by 10 percent this year.

Unemployment is a different story.

Budget officials expect unemployment statewide to stay above 8 percent for all of this year. It’s projected to stay above 7 percent until 2014.

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